Gold

Gold and Miners Price Drivers:

1. Scenario 1 (high probability): The DX and the US$ gold price making sizable gains as the global bust intensifies and demand increases for the most liquid and safest assets.

2. Scenario 2 (medium probability): The Fed reverses US monetary policy and slashes rates leading to a DX sell-off combined with a large rise in the US$ gold price.

3. Scenario 3 (lower probability): A sell-off in the gold market combined with a large rise in the DX. This would come about if the T-Bond were to resume its long-term bearish trend within the next few months, causing real US interest rates to move well above this year’s highs.