Important S&P500 Charts
Below are adaptations of R. Clark’s historical analysis of the S&P500. COT Report for E-Mini Futures are also included as well as my own percentage decline from high chart.
The S&P 500 started in 1957 but is more representative of the US stock market than the Dow Jones today. However, the Dow was the best representative index prior to 1957. The Century charts below represent an amalgam of the Dow and S&P 500.
SPX Century Chart and Related Weekly Chart Link to heading
Ross Clark’s SPX Century and Related Weekly Charts
My Recreation of Century Chart
My Recreation of Related Weekly Chart
E-Mini S&P 500 (ES) / XLU Ratio chart Link to heading
This chart represents way to gauge risk-on and risk-off sentiment. When the ratio is below the 100 day SMA the market is in risk-off mode and vice versa. Of course head fakes are possible after an initial break. XLU is the Utilities ETF which is often bought when market participants are feeling more conservative.
Fred Liabilities and Capital Link to heading
This chart is important to the S&P500 because it shows the true trend of liquidity (bank reserves) which influences the stock markets direction of course. Despite the Fed performing quantative tightening (QT) since mid-2022, the amount of money coming out of the Reverse Repo (RRP) facility and the Treasury General Account(TGA) has more than offset the Fed’s QT, at least until later April 2024 when we see the up trend reverse slightly.
This Tradingview chart of Fred Liabilities and Capital and Spy shows the massive monetary injection starting at the bottom of the Covid crash and the subsequent bull market.
SPX Percentage Decline from Last High Century Chart Link to heading
This chart shows the percentage decline from highs over the last century. A horizintal red line is drawn from the last major low in late 2022 to the late 1800’s showing how that decline relates to historical example. The Vertical orange lines represent new highs (exceeding the last high). Green horizontal lines demonstrate the same concept of last highs being exceeded with a new high.
The crash at the start of the great depression dwarfs all other declines to this day.
SPX Daily and Weekly Charts Link to heading
SPX Capitulation in an Uptrend Chart by R. Clark
The charts below are modelled after R. Clark’s chart above. The daily and weekly charts both try to identify potential downside corrections bottoms within an overall uptrend. Clark’s approach uses a combination of tools that I have tried to emulate. For example, in the above chart he shows a “CAPII” signal which, based on my studies of him, represents a pullback within a larger uptrend down to the twenty week EMA (moderate correction). Deeper corrections to the 50 Week EMA are also considered CapII by Clark. These are of course more extreme and thus more meaningful corrections.
The potential moderate capitulation point will contain the following characteristics:
- A pullback to the 20 Week EMA (roughly equivalent to the 100 Day EMA)
- Oversold weekly signals on the RSI(5) and CCI(8) oscillators. Not necessarily the CCI(20).
- Exhaustion Buy Signals nor Demark 9 counts necessarily coincide with a capitulation at the 20 week/100 day EMA and oversold oscillators.
The potential extreme capitulation point (more meaningful) will contain the following characteristics:
- A pullback to the 50 Week EMA (roughly equivalent to the 250 Day EMA)
- Oversold weekly signals on the RSI(5), CCI(8) and CCI(20) oscillators.
- Exhaustion Buy Signals and Demark 9 counts on a daily chart (possibly weekly as well) have a good chance of printing with the extreme capitulation signals.
As of April 2th 2024, the SPX is at a potential moderate reversal point. See the published trading view chart below. Per Clark a 38% retracement rally is possible based on analagous periods of the past (as described in his first chart linked at the top of this page). My charts emulating Clark follow:
Published Static Chart of SPX Capitulation In an Uptrend
The live weekly and daily charts are below.
SPX Daily Chart Modeled after R. Clarks CapII. I call this chart: “CAP UPT Daily”
SPX Weekly Chart Modeled after R. Clarks CapII. I call this chart: “CAP UPT Weekly”
ES Minis Commitment of Traders (COT) charts. Link to heading
Crowded Market Report (CMR) COT Index for ES Minis
COT Commercials RSI and Bollinger Band Chart
COT Large Specs RSI and Bollinger Band Chart
COT Small Specs RSI and Bollinger Band Chart