Important Gold Charts
As of April 2024, Gold has had a major breakout. The sector is now very important for its purely bullish implications for opportunities to profit as well as what gold is trying to tell us about the overall macro. I will be watching the gold sector closely for the next couple of years quite likely and will be capturing information here.
Gold Fibonacci Projections Link to heading
This chart shows fibonacci projections for the price of gold based on the depth of the 2011 to 2015 pullback.
My above chart is modelled on R. Clark’s chart here:
Gold Pullback Opportunity Finder Link to heading
Gold Silver Ratio Link to heading
The Gold Silver Ratio is often used as a “metallic credit spread” to quote Bob Hoye. A low gold-silver ratio indicates silver is performing well relative to gold. This can suggest a risk-on environment where investors are more willing to invest in riskier, inflation-sensitive assets like silver. Gold, being a safer monetary system and banking sensitive instrument, can experience inflation-driven rises, however, it is far more responsive to concerns about the financial system and banking sector (risk-off). So, for example, if there is a banking crisis, gold is likely to perform better than silver, implying the general market will be in risk off mode (as it almost always is whenever concerns about the banking/monetary systema arises).
The monthly historical chart linked below shows this ratio, SPX and USD.
The daily chart of the ratio can be evaluated for shorter term risk-on/off implications.
Gold Energy Chart: This serves as a proxy for earnings for gold miners. Link to heading
The stronger the price of gold relative to energy, the more potential earnings for gold miners given that they are energy intensive. This ratio does not always match the gold mining sectors charts. However, it can serve as a justification for bull or bear markets and potential risk in the sector. The higher this ratio the better the gold mining fundamentals are.
Evaluate the daily chart for shorter term fundamentals of gold miners.
Here is a boom-bust earniings chart for the Gold Miners:
Boom-Bust Gold Miners Earnings
Renko Chart for the Bullish Percent Gold miners (BPGM) which is a sentiment indicator. Link to heading
The $BPGDM measures the percentage of gold mining stocks in a bullish technical formation. It is not clear how it determines the bullish formation. However, this Point and Figure chart does have clean buy and sell signals and is effective:
Gold Commitment of Traders (COT) charts. Link to heading
Crowded Market Report (CMR) COT Index for Gold
COT Commercials RSI and Bollinger Band Chart
COT Large Specs RSI and Bollinger Band Chart
COT Small Specs RSI and Bollinger Band Chart